What are the most important factors to consider when forecasting trends in your industry? (2024)

Based on 50+ years of Bus Dev experience in which Flagship has launched 61 major initiatives of which 54(89%) were successfulThese have generated over $40 Billion in new continuous revenue, and the magnitude of the problem being solved is the controlling factor....the larger the problem the larger the new business opportunity.This why we state the problem up front in our concept testing and it is a key to our success rate, e.g.,Consumers like you told us that they have this problem. Given that we have identified a major problem, the respondent is hooked mentally and they want a solution.Now all we have to do is have a successful solution and you are off to success.

Historical data is essential to forecasting but often the start of the problem. Inconsistency in data collection can often create a challenge in being able to use the data. So assessing data quality and consistency is often the starting point before determining its value in accurate forecasting.

To predict trends in the industry, I recommend not only looking at official statistical data, but also sampling articles from business people in the industry published daily on various social media. Public data statistics inevitably result in time loss, so I strive to understand trends from a macro perspective, and personal articles on social media are best suited for trends that change day by day. From those articles, I set and extract some keywords that hold the key to trends in that industry. Although I cannot describe the specifics here as it is a matter of know-how, by reading the frequency of occurrence of that keyword in articles and information related to that keyword, even in these unstable times, you can predict future trends.

Working in Cannabis and Hemp,which is vastly different and new everywhere,we must watch the cultural hype that is popularized. Even music popularity can change sales and wants of customer base. Branding is often a key point as just with alcohol,the branding appeals to the subjects personal style and culture. Keeping aligned with 1 customer base can dwindle sales and its important to create a brand that speaks to more than one social group. Humans are creatures of habit and when they find a consistent product brand that aligns with their values,they will often stay loyal especially if the brand interacts with them on media and in other ways provides support to their needs and product value. Sales may definitely flex with location change

Customer behaviour is impacted and influenced by the interventions which were based on assessing that behaviour in the first place.. so cohorts will be dynamic and fluid. Large cohorts and data volumes are required to effectively anticipate and respond to changes in demand. So as an approach it is often only viable for very large brands.

Don't try to forecast, you are bound to get it wrong.Instead try to create the future by finding out what your prospective customers really want and then providing it for them.Disruptive innovation isn't really a thing. Disruption is the natural consequence of providing a better customer experience than the market leader. If you can do that the market will follow you instead of you trying to guess the trends .

Competitive analysis is ineffective if conducted sitting in your chair! meaning it’s not just an online review, data analysis exercice. Get out in the stores/or whether your product or service is related to. Watch customers, see what’s working or not in the physical environment, talk to the store associates, and don’t just go to one store/one mall, hit the road and get a wide data group for analysis.

Forecasting trends isn't just about watching competitors; it's about uncovering opportunities they've overlooked. Perform a SWOT analysis to discern your unique position in the market. Regularly review competitors' customer feedback and pivot where they falter. Highlight these strategies with real-world examples to provide a blueprint for finding and leveraging market gaps.

The best tech innovation is the sort that enables you to delver a customer outcome that has never previously been possible (or affordable).Always start with the customer opportunity rather than casting around looking for something to do with an emerging tech innovation

To forecast effectively, evaluate how emerging technologies could redefine your industry. Focus on the feasibility of integrating new tech into existing systems, the viability of its market adoption, and its desirability to end-users. Break down complex innovations into practical applications that can solve real customer problems, thereby creating tangible value. Share insights on the potential ripple effects of these technologies, providing a clear roadmap for businesses to innovate strategically.

Pay attention to trends in other industries as well. Consumers who changing their buying behavior in another industry can signal changes or impact within your own.

Be open to accidental discoveries. If you set out to solve A but accidentally solve B, then think carefully about what you can do with B.

Forecasting the future requires both science and art. Although quantitative models and historical data are valuable inputs, they cannot fully account for the variables that drive human behavior. Additionally, they cannot anticipate paradigm shifts that disrupt entire industries.Experienced analysts and leaders use intuition and qualitative insights to enhance scientific forecasting. They continuously monitor emerging subcultures, early prototype launches, avant-garde art movements, shifting values in youth demographics, and other subtle societal changes. This helps them detect the seeds of a larger trend or disruption before it becomes mainstream.

Be cautious of trends… Focus on categories that might not be as sexy or cool but have product market fit.Trends come and go. For example, “Keto” was very hot for 5 years… Saturated markets have more opportunity than unsaturated markets. Innovate within a busy market and you can win really big.

Success arises not from perfect predictions, but imperfect attempts improved over time. Forecasting awards opportunity, while reality gifts lessonThe most forward-thinking founders synthesize hard data with a human understanding of qualitative drivers. By deeply listening to customers, they can uncover "weak signals" that even analysts miss - hinting at needs consumers don't yet know how to articulate.

Trends must not be ignored. Don’t showcase them in their entirety but tailor them to your customer base in order to provide new and relevant ideas.