If the polls are correct, Sir Keir Starmer stands on the precipice of leading Labour back into government with a “supermajority” to boot on July 4. His manifesto hinges on promises of economic growth, fixing the NHS, improving access to housing, enhancing education outcomes and investing heavily in green energy – all without explicitly raising taxes.
Starmer’s blueprint for Britain under a Labour government has brought into renewed focus the party’s record in Wales, where it has wielded the levers of power in the Senedd ever since executive and legislative functions were first devolved to the nation in 1999.
So, what do outcomes in Wales foretell about Labour’s ability to deliver?
The economy
More than two decades of Labour rule appears to have done little to boost Wales’ economic performance. At the turn of the millennium, GDP per capita in the country – total economic output divided among the population, the most common indicator of living standards – was £13,121.
This figure, adjusted for inflation, was lower than every other constituent part of the UK, and 14 per cent shy of the average for the entire country, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In large part, the situation at the time was a reflection of the nation’s industrial decline over the latter half of the 20th century, which saw coal mining and steel production slump dramatically. But under successive Labour administrations since, Wales has proved unable to shake free from the malaise.
A quarter century of lacklustre economic growth – the regional economy growing 124 per cent between 1999 and 2022, relative to 154 per cent for Northern Ireland, 143 per cent for England and 139 per cent for Scotland – means it is still at the bottom of the home nations tables.
The NHS
In 1999, the UK’s devolved authorities were given wide-ranging control over their healthcare systems. Their unicity makes comparisons difficult, but in recent years all have adopted a similar target for A&E waits: 95 per cent of arrivals should be treated within four hours.
NHS Wales did not meet this goal at any point during the past decade. Between 2012 and 2023, the annual average proportion of patients at major admitted, transferred or discharged within four hours fell from 87 to 56.5 per cent – a steeper decline than in any other UK nation.
The situation in Northern Ireland is even more dire, with treatment targets missed more often. However, the relative collapse in service level compared to Wales over the past decade has been less profound.
Improvements in life expectancy at birth were also the leanest in Wales between 2001 and 2020 – stretching by just 29 months, relative to 34 months in England.
Housing
Over the past five years, housing costs have usurped other expenditure to become the largest point of average weekly outlay for people across the UK. Across the country, property prices almost tripled between 1999 and 2024.
Families in England experienced the most intense upward pressure. As of March 2024, the average property in the country cost £299,321, according to HM Land Registry data.
Wales is, and has long been, the second-most expensive part of the UK to buy in, with a comparable figure of £213,753.
Affordability – house prices divided by median full-time annual earnings – paints a similarly grim picture for both.
England fared worst by this metric, with homes going for 8.5 times incomes last year, followed by Wales (6.5), Northern Ireland (5.3) and Scotland (5.2).
Education
Wales’ position in international rankings of pupils’ performance belies its place as a developed Western nation. A fall in maths attainment in the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) studies has been observed across the UK, but Wales fares particularly badly.
With matters of education devolved to Cardiff since 1999, Wales first participated in PISA in 2006. Back then, the nation scored lowest in the UK, 3.2 percentage points below the average.
Fast forward to the latest iteration, published in late 2023, and the situation was unchanged. The gap among 15-year-olds in Wales and England had doubled from 11 to 26 performance points – the widest disparity in a decade.
The Welsh teachers’ union, NAHT Cymru, has blamed reductions in funding from the central government in Westminster for the crisis, highlighting that real-terms’ spending on schools has fallen by around six per cent between 2009/10 and 2023/24.
Taxes
Council tax has risen faster in Wales in the past 25 years than other parts of the UK.
Between 1999/00 and 2024/25, average Band D rates – the benchmark set by local authorities – soared 236.4 per cent in the country, compared to 172 per cent in England and 67 per cent in Scotland.
In large part, this can be attributed to the greater flexibility that the unitary authorities of Wales have to raise such rates. In England, since 2012, councils have been required to hold a referendum among the local electorate for “excessive” increases above 4.99 per cent.
No such rule exists in Wales, and every single one of the nation’s 22 councils breached this threshold last year.
Average bills in monetary terms remain higher in England (£2,171) than in Wales (£2,024), but it is catching up at pace.
Environment
In 2021, the Senedd formally matched the UK Government’s pledge to reach net zero by 2050. In practice, this consists of a 100 per cent reduction from 1990-level greenhouse gas emissions.
By the end of 2021, the latest year for which figures are available, Wales had got down to just 64.6 per cent. England and Scotland had, meanwhile, succeeded in roughly halving their output of such pollutants. Northern Ireland’s emissions stood at 77.1 per cent of 1990 levels.
While the Climate Change Committee (CCC), Westminster’s independent advisory body on climate, lauded the Welsh Government’s decision last year to cancel all major road projects on environmental grounds – notably shelving plans for a third bridge over the Menai Strait – its latest report highlighted “insufficient” tangible progress “in many areas that are dependent on Welsh Government policy powers”.
It stated: “Most notably, tree-planting rates and peatland restoration rates are far too low, and development of the charging infrastructure needed to support the transition to electric vehicles is not happening quickly enough.”
A flagship policy to reduce speed limits from 30mph to 20mph in built-up areas such as village and town centres has made little difference to air quality, according to research published in May.
The Telegraph contacted Welsh Labour for comment. The party had not responded by the time of publication.
