Free NBA Picks & Predictions - Today's Best NBA Bets (2024)

Minnesota’s last 11 games have established a precedent. In five wins, the Under cashes. In six losses, the Over cashes. The Wolves’ undoing this round has been their defense. In the first two rounds, Minnesota posted a 107.6 defensive rating. In the first 3 games of this series, that spiked to 118.5. In Game 4, it returned to 107.5. The defense starts any Minnesota success these days. That was aided by the Mavs losing Dereck Lively II, though it was also harmed by Minnesota’s offense giving Dallas 15 turnovers which led to 30 points. The Wolves’ Game 3 defensive success should be replicable, and if it is done again, then it should go hand-in-hand with a Minnesota win.

Show more

Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 12 hrs, 8 min ago.

More NBA analysis

In 5 elimination games across the last 3 seasons, preceding Tuesday’s, Towns grabbed 10+ rebounds in all of them, averaging 11.4 boards. With Rudy Gobert alongside him for four of those, Towns still grabbed 11+ rebounds in each. Disregard Towns finding only 5 boards in Game 4. Four offensive fouls limited both his minutes and his aggression. Towns picked up his fifth foul with 4:59 left in the third quarter, playing only 7:29 the rest of the way. To emphasize how the foul trouble also impacted Towns’s aggression, realize he did not grab a single rebound in that 7:29. If Towns can log 32 minutes without spending most of them worrying about fouling out, he should easily clear this prop.

Show more

Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 hrs, 47 min ago.

More NBA analysis

Minnesota’s offense hums best when Anthony Edwards attacks the lane. Rudy Gobert has little elsewhere to go, so to avoid having two bigs and their defenders clogging the lane, Towns has to space elsewhere. That is fortuitous, given he is one of the best shooting big men of all time, Game 3’s struggles aside. Towns has hit at least three 3s in five playoff games this year. More notably, remove the last two games (4-of-13) and he has shot 39.1% from deep on 4.9 attempts per game this potstseason. Emphasizing Edwards’s downhill presence — he created 23 scoring chances off drives in each of the last two games — should lead to only more looks for Towns from deep.

Show more

Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 hrs, 45 min ago.

More NBA analysis

Minnesota spent the last two games emphasizing Anthony Edwards’s downhill abilities to open up the offense. Doing so takes away most potential assists from any Timberwolves not usually in the playmaking role. Between Mike Conley’s usual duties, Kyle Anderson’s increased status as floor general and Edwards’s time driving into the lane, Towns will not be asked to initiate any Minnesota actions. If he racks up three assists for a third time in this series, they will almost all border on incidental.

Show more

Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 hrs, 43 min ago.

More NBA analysis