Armed with extra picks, should Blues entertain trading up in 1st round? (2024)

If the Blues are looking for an opportunity to trade up, this year’s draft might present them a unique scenario to do so.

They are slated to pick 16th in the first round on Friday night in Las Vegas, but with extra assets and a hearty class of defensem*n, the Blues could trade up to secure a future franchise cornerstone. During a meeting with reporters last week, Blues general manager Doug Armstrong said the club would consider all options — staying put, trading up or trading back.

“I think our guys are excited about who they’re going to get at 16,” Armstrong said of his amateur scouting staff. “They’d be excited if we could get into the top 10. I think they understand that if we move back and get another second (round pick), having three seconds would be exciting, too.”

The Blues have traded up four times in the past two decades: in 2018 to No. 25 to pick Dominik Bokk; 2016 to No. 26 to select Tage Thompson; 2007 to No. 18 for Ian Cole; and 2006 to No. 25 to take Patrik Berglund. But for all of those moves, the capital used to move up was lessened by just how far down they were in the first round.

This year, trading up means potentially getting into the top 10.

The Blues have two second-round picks and two third-round picks this year, the lingering products of 2023 trade-deadline deals that sent Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari to Toronto, plus Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola to the Rangers. Might some combination of those picks be enough to jump into contention for the top group of defensem*n?

The consensus among draft experts is that there is a top tier of six defensem*n in the draft (Artyom Levshunov, Anton Silayev, Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium, Sam Dickinson and Carter Yakemchuk), followed by a second grouping that includes Stian Solberg and Adam Jiricek.

Armstrong has reiterated, though, that the Blues will not draft based on positional need in their prospect pipeline and instead could opt to balance their pool by trading from an excess of forwards.

Like most NHL teams, the Blues have their own internal pick value chart that assigns weights to each selection in the draft. They all vary slightly from team to team, so it’s possible that both teams believe they are getting better value by completing a trade of picks.

“If you take 16 and both seconds, you add that point total up, does it get you to (No.) 8?” Armstrong said. “Does it get you to 11? Also, our point total isn’t exact to somebody else’s, so then you’re working on what they see, where their prospect pool is at. Do they want to have those extra picks? It’s the picks in this year’s draft, the picks in next year’s draft, and it’s other assets that are already on our reserve list.”

Historically, it’s tough for teams that are outside the top 10 to move into the top 10 using just draft picks. The last team to do so was San Jose in 2007, when it moved from No. 13 to No. 9 in order to select Logan Couture. That trade was with the Blues, who also picked up a second-rounder (No. 44) and a third-rounder (No. 87) in the process.

Otherwise, an NHL player has been included in order to move into a premium draft position. Chicago’s haul in the Alex DeBrincat trade included pick No. 7 from Ottawa. Oliver Ekman-Larsson brought Arizona pick No. 9 from Vancouver.

Young prospects such as Kirby Dach and Alexander Romanov were part of transactions including the No. 13 pick in 2022.

“You can get into the top four or five, but it’s going to cut very, very deep into players we’re trying to build around,” Armstrong said. “So let’s say you want to get into (Nos.) 8, 9, 10, 11, I think that’s doable. It’s painful. I’ve got to get the threshold of pain that we’re willing to take as an organization.”

Armstrong planned to call general managers around the league in order to understand the trade market or to lay the groundwork for draft-floor deals in Las Vegas this week. Additionally, the Blues’ scouting staff would sort players into three categories — chase, don’t chase and move back — to better manage their draft-day strategy.

For the Blues, the circ*mstances might not be this perfect again.

Picking at No. 16 after missing the playoffs two straight years? The Blues are hoping they can end the drought next spring. Having such a deep defenseman draft? It could be the first time since 2012 that five defensem*n go in the top 10 of the draft. Owning multiple picks in the second and third rounds? It’s been 15 years since the Blues have had five picks in the first three rounds in consecutive drafts.

“Every time we walk out of the draft, what I’m going to hear is, ‘Next year’s draft isn’t as good,’” Armstrong said. “And then we get to the meetings, ‘This draft’s better than I thought it was going to be.’ We walked out of last year’s draft and I heard this year’s draft wasn’t as good. You say to the guys, ‘Well, should we trade our seconds and thirds?’ ‘Oh, no, no. We’re going to get a good player there.’ That’s just the nature of scouting. There’s that belief system that you can find a player.”